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MTGA 上线 LCI 系列之后，限制环境是怎么样呢？发生着什么样的演变呢？我们尝试结合 17 Lands 的数据，以及深度挖掘和 AI 模型一点一点的挖（po）掘（jie）环境。

好啦，介绍完我们的工作，就开始进入正题吧~欢迎关注我们的公众号：TopDeck，我们会时刻关注限制环境，带来更多的分享。

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I’ve been drafting even more than I usually do because I’ve really enjoyed the Lost Caverns of Ixalan draft format.  My experience with the set is weird because while I often draft control decks, I rarely draft decks that prioritize completely different cards than other ****** succeed with, which seems to be happening here.

我非常喜欢 LCI 轮抓，所以相比其他系列我玩了更多轮抓。在这个系列我抓了很多控制思路套牌。其他玩家惯常的套路，我抓的比较少。

When I look at what’s been doing well in the format according to 17lands.com, a site that drafts statistics from Arena users, the most successful and most heavily drafted decks are Blue/White and Blue/Red, but I mostly draft Black decks, usually Black/Green, and I also splash a lot.  Even when I don’t play Black, I almost always build my decks to try to win long games rather than to try to go faster than my opponent.

在 17 Lands 的 MTGA 轮抓数据统计中，最成功、抓的最多的色组是蓝白和蓝红。但我抓的最多的是黑色系套牌，通常是黑绿，也会经常混色。就算我不打黑，也经常会构筑一个多回合数获胜的套牌，而不是跟我的对手比快。

The result of this has been that I haven’t really been able to reference data from 17lands about which cards are good, because the context of my decks are so different than the decks most ****** are playing that what works well in other decks has very little correlation with what will work well in my decks.

因此，我不太能根据 17 Lands 上的数据作为评价单卡强度的参考。因为套牌的思路和大多数比较成功的思路相关性并不高，所以单卡在不同套牌中的表现也不一样。

I’ve known a lot of players who have generally been skeptical of the utility of data for drafting, and I’ve mostly found it useful, but I also never take it as gospel.  My general approach has been to assume that cards are about as good as their aggregate performance would suggest except in cases where my context provides a clear exception, but in this set, I just assume that my context provides a clear exception for every card before even checking.

关于轮抓数据，很多玩家会抱有怀疑态度。我认为数据是有用的，但也确实不会把数据当成唯一真理。通常我会通过整体表现来衡量一张牌的强弱。但是在这个系列，我会以我构筑套牌的思路来衡量单卡。

I can only do this because my results have been good enough that I can trust that the cards that I think have been good are good, but this situation has made me hesitant to tell other ****** what to draft in this set.  If I were to tell someone to draft Black/Green without giving them any more information, I’d have to expect that their results would most likely more closely resemble the aggregate stats, which are very bad.

我只在自己非常有信心以我的标准衡量单卡强度是非常有效的时候才会这样来操作。但是如果当我用这种方式组牌的时候，我会比较犹豫要不要把这个方法跟其他人分享。因为，假如我告诉别人抓黑绿，但是没有告诉他们充分的信息，我就不得不再来解释为什么他们抓的套牌胜率很低，跟总体统计差不多。

So I’d like to try to explain enough of the reasoning that I can provide some useful advice.

所以，我现在就尝试来充分的讲解一下我的思路。希望这是有用的建议。

My overall goal is to draft such that I have inevitability in any given game.  The onus will very rarely be on me to end a game.  If an attack is risky, I don’t have to make it, and if I could use a removal spell on a creature that isn’t very important to push damage, I won’t bother to do that.  Every extra turn that happens will increase my chances of winning.

我的整体目标是可以适应不同套牌思路的对局。我不会急着去终结每局游戏。如果一次生物进攻是有风险的，我就并不必须踢出去。如果用去除消灭一个生物并不让我形成成吨的伤害，那么我可能也不会急着消灭这个生物。每局比赛的回合数越多，我获胜的几率都会更高。

Understanding the big picture goal makes it a lot easier to evaluate cards, because you can ask how well they accomplish that goal.

有了大的目标，就能根据是否能帮助我们达成这个目标来衡量单卡强度了。

The most important card in the format for me is Hoverstone Pilgrim, and I’m always drafting to prepare to see it, and very rarely pass it.  When I’m streaming, ****** often ask why a particular deck wants Hoverstone Pilgrim.  The answer is that the card plays well in the format because it’s a fantastic blocker and if you’re playing long games it’s more likely that your opponent’s graveyard is going to matter and being able to get cards out of their graveyard can help you a lot when it comes to long term inevitability.  However, the real reason it’s important to me is so that I can expect that I can’t deck myself.

OK，根据这个原则，在这个系列里，浮石朝圣像是一张非常重要的牌。我非常想在轮抓里见到 ta，而且几乎不会把 ta 传走。我直播的时候，经常有人问我为啥这个套牌需要浮石朝圣像？原因是在这个系列里表现很好。首先，ta 是一个绝佳的阻挡者。然后，如果你要玩一个多回合的对局，坟场对于你和对手都很重要。你可以用 ta 来影响对手的坟场，把一些坟场里的牌弄出去，也能在长盘对局中对你有所帮助。当然非常重要的一点，我可不想抓光自己的牌库。

Players often ask how often that comes up, and the honest answer is that while it has come up, it’s extremely rare, certainly less than once per draft where I have Hoverstone Pilgrim on average.  However, I think it impacts the game even when it doesn’t come up.  I kind of think of Hoverstone Pilgrim as a security blanket, but having it actually matters because it lets me safely play the kind of game I want to play rather than finding myself in situations where I have to consider that I should maybe be careful about drawing or milling too many cards or maybe I need to find a way to push damage before I run out of cards.  Having it in my deck just means there are a lot of things I get to stop playing around, and that lets me play better in the mid to late game.

坦率的说，浮石朝圣像并不总是能用出来。但就算我没用出 ta，ta 也会影响对局。浮石朝圣像就想是一个安全毯。当我有 ta 的时候，我能够更安心的操作这种套牌，不必担心抓了太多牌，或者磨了太多牌，以至于我必须在磨光牌库之前，尽快踹死对手。

You might note that my opponent can just kill my Hoverstone Pilgrim and then deck me.  That’s true, which is why I always prioritize having a way to get my Hoverstone Pilgrim back from my graveyard.  Fortunately, there are three common cards in three different colors that let me get Hoverstone Pilgrim back and none of them are taken very early: Oltec Archeologists, Another Chance, and Walk with the Ancestors.  Any time I’m really planning to have a decent chance of getting through my library, I’ll prioritize having one of these, even if I have to splash it.

你可能注意到，对手可以通过杀死我的浮石朝圣像来让我的牌库被抓光。确实如此，所以我会优先考虑如何让我的浮石朝圣像能从坟场被拉回来。很幸运我们在三个颜色里各有一张抓位不高的铁牌能做到这事：欧尔特克考古学家，再获良机，以及先祖同行。当我觉得有机会玩一套抓起整个牌库的套牌时，我会优先选择抓到他们，哪怕我需要混色。

While I think the impact of having a Hoverstone Pilgrim in my deck is higher than any random common I could have instead, so I take it highly, I don’t think it’s actually required to play with the kind of strategy I like to play with, since, as mentioned, it doesn’t actually come up all that often.

我认为浮石朝圣像的影响力大于任何铁牌。所以我会很高抓 ta。哪怕就像前面提到的，在我的策略里 ta 也不总是能真正被用出来。

You might think that if I’m drafting control decks I’d want to try to have a lot of removal and maybe counterspells, but most removal spells aren’t really that important to me.  It’s certainly good to have some to answer opposing bombs, but for the most part, I’ve found blocking to be very effective in this format, and because of the descend mechanic I try to play around 35 permanents in most of my decks, so I’m only interested in premium removal.

你可能会想，如果我们玩的是一个控制套牌，是不是还需要很多去除或者康。但对我来说，大多数去除并没有那么重要。能解决对方的炸弹当然很好，但是因为落坟机制的存在，我希望我的套牌里能有大概 35 个永久物。所以，我认为好的阻挡者在这个系列里是更有效率的。如果要用去除，我只对那些真正厉害的去除感兴趣。

Here are some common creatures I really like blocking with:

这是一些我喜欢的铁牌生物阻挡者：

Black: Deathcap Marionette, Echo of Dusk, Primordial Gnawer

黑：毒蕈菇偶，暮影念世灵，原初啮骨虫

Green: Basking Capybara, Poison Dart Frog, Mineshaft Spider, Pathfinding Axejaw

绿：沐日水豚，毒镖蛙，矿坑蜘蛛，探路斧颚龙

Blue: Cogwork Wrestler, Waterwind Scout, Didact Echo, Frilled Cave-Wurm

蓝：齿轮摔角械，游风斥候，布道念世灵，刃鳍洞窟亚龙

All of these creatures trade with creatures that cost more mana than them and/or generate some kind of immediate value when I play them. These let me get a little ahead and/or stop my opponent from attacking, allowing me to take additional turns, which means it’s more likely that I’ll win.

这些生物通常可以向上交换，或者在结算他们的时候就能获得额外收益。这就会让对手放慢进攻的节奏，让我获得更多的游戏回合，从而拿下比赛。

The uncommon creatures are where the real value comes from

银牌生物是真正的宝矿

Black: Deep-Cavern Bat, Stinging Cave Crawler, Synapse Necromage, Chupacabra Echo, Gargantuan Leech

黑：深窟蝙蝠，毒刺洞窟爬虫，突蕈死灵法师，念世卓柏卡布拉，庞巨蛭

Green: Cenote Scout, Coati Scavenger, Thrashing Brontodon, Colossadactyl

绿：岩洞井斥候，食腐浣熊，痛击霆伟龙，庞硕翼指龙

Blue: Spyglass Siren, Sinuous Benthisaur, Council of Echoes

蓝：望远塞连，曲身深海龙，念世灵议会

Multicolor and colorless: Akawalli, the Seething Tower, Uchenbak, the Great Mistake, Scampering Surveyor, Hoverstone Pilgrim

多色和无色：火热伟菇阿卡瓦利，厄灾骨绷霸，腾跃勘探械，浮石朝圣像

Deep-Cavern Bat isn’t really for blocking, but it does buy you life while disrupting the opponent.  Synapse Necromage is only really good if you have some way to sacrifice the tokens for value.

深窟蝙蝠不是用来阻挡的，但是 ta 能通过回血来打乱对手的节奏。如果你有通过牺牲来获得收益的，突蕈死灵法师是非常好的牺牲对象。

What’s great about many of these creatures is that they’re good at getting some value up front, and then trading with something and going to my graveyard, which is where I want them, because then I can get them back and play them again.  Many of these creatures are much better than other cards I could be playing, so using the same cards that I play to recycle my Hoverstone Pilgrim also allows me to recycle these value creatures.

这些生物的厉害之处在于，他们能先获得一些收益，然后和对手的生物交换，然后进入我很想让他们进入的坟场。因为这样我就可以将他们掘坟回来，然后再利用他们一次。这些生物比其他牌强，所以，如果我能回收浮石朝圣像的手段，也可以用来回收他们。

At this point I should admit that Echoing Chupacabra, not Hoverstone Pilgrim, is the real star of these decks.  I mentioned that I don’t want to play a lot of removal, but I do still need an answer to my opponent’s bombs or utility creatures I have to answer like Sunshot Militia.  Echoing Chupacabra typically ends up killing several creatures for me, as I play even more ways to get it back when I have one.

好的，写到这里，我需要坦诚，相比浮石朝圣像，念世卓柏卡布拉才是此类套牌的明星。前面说过，在这个系列里，我不喜欢使用太多去除。但是，我们还是要解决掉对手的炸弹，或者坚实的生物，例如：阳击民兵。念世卓柏卡布拉着实帮我杀死了太多对手的生物，尤其是当我能掘坟反复拉 ta 的时候。

The next important point is that unless I have other synergies, I very rarely play creatures other than the ones listed here, and I also only play premium removal.  I don’t play subpar or off-plan terminal cards, that is to say cards that don’t replace themselves.  I prioritize finding my best cards very highly, so I play cards like Orazca Puzzle-Door, Inverted Iceberg and In the Presence of Ages that let me churn through my deck while filling my graveyard and digging for my best cards.

另一个重要的点是，除非我有其他很强的协同效应，否则我不怎么用上面没有提到的生物，以及我只使用高质量的去除。我不使用低于标准或者计划外的牌。我会想办法尽快抓到我的那些高质量牌。所以我会使用欧拉兹卡密门、颠转冰山、岁月为证来帮我遍历牌库、填坟、找我的好牌。

Because my strategy revolves around finding and reusing my best cards, my decks make great use of rare creatures, which is good, because a lot of the rare creatures are much better than the commons and uncommons.

因为我的策略是围绕着找到和循环使用我的好牌，所以我的套牌也会尽量使用高质量的金牌。确实大量的金牌还是比银铁要厉害。

The last thing I prioritize is caves.  I mentioned that I value Sinuous Benthisaur, Scampering Surveryor, and Gargantuan Leech, which suggests that I have at least some interest in caves, but I actually have a lot of interest in caves.  I think all of the common caves are generally very good.  It’s much harder to flood out when you have some of the discover caves, and while Promising Vein is mostly the same card as Shire Terrace, which was very bad in Lord of the Rings draft, Promising Vein is much better in this set because putting a land in your graveyard is valuable because of descend, and it makes splashing easier, and so does Captivating Cave, and the ability to sacrifice that also adds some power to your deck in the late game.

最后我想说的是洞窟，这也是我会优先考虑的。前面我有提到，我会从曲身深海龙，火热伟菇阿卡瓦利，庞巨蛭身上获取收益。那么就要求我们的套牌里需要包含洞窟。所有的铁牌洞窟都很不错。你很少会觉得倾探洞窟多了会是灾难。诱人矿脉跟魔戒系列的夏尔梯田如出一辙，但是夏尔梯田在魔戒轮抓里不是一张好牌，而诱人矿脉在 LCI 轮抓就很不错，因为 ta 能把一张地扔进坟场从而通过落坟获取收益。诱人矿脉和魅惑洞窟也能帮助混色。魅惑洞窟在后期还能给生物提供一些力量增强。

Most of the uncommon caves are only good if you have several common caves, but I’ll still take any cave over a card that isn’t very important to me so that I’m in a better position to take advantage of other caves I see.

大多数银牌洞窟在你有了不少铁牌洞窟之后才会发挥价值。但即便如此，当我没有看到其他好牌的时候，我就会优先抓这些洞窟。

I have much less experience drafting Red and White than drafting Blue, Black, and Green.  I think Red isn’t very good at playing long games, but it does have a few tools.  I think White plays decent long games, especially when paired with Blue, but I end up there a lot less because White doesn’t support the Descend theme, and I typically assume I’m going to care about that.  White control decks typically involve a lot of crafting, which actually works against descend, but you can combine both if you have a lot of Puzzle-Doors and Icebergs.

相比起蓝、黑、绿，我很少抓红和白。我觉得红牌不太适合多回合对局，当然红色也有一些有用的组件。白色完全还是能打多回合对局的，尤其是和蓝牌配合的时候。但我整体上打白色还是比较少，因为白色和落坟主题没啥关系。白色的控制思路通常要包含很多化炼牌，这会跟落坟思路相悖。如果你有很多欧拉兹卡密门、颠转冰山就能把两个思路都融合起来。

The White commons I’m most interested in in controlling decks are Petrify, Cosmium Blast, Tinkerer’s Tote, Quicksand Whirlpool, Oltec Cloud Guard, Oltec Archaeologists, and Soaring Sandwing.

控制思路的白色铁牌：石化术，宇金冲击，修补匠背袋，流沙漩涡，欧尔特克翔云卫，欧尔特克考古学家，翱翔砂翼龙。

I’ve known a lot of ****** who are frustrated with this set because of how fast and swing-y the games are, or how repetitive just drafting aggressive red artifact decks can be.  If that describes you, I really think you should give the format another chance and try approaching it this way, as I’ve found both drafting and the game play especially fun and interesting.

我知道很多玩家因为 LCI 的速度太快以及波动太大，而对环境感觉沮丧。要不然就是不断重复的抓沾红的神器快攻套牌。如果你就是这样的，我真心觉得你可以试试我的整个思路。没准儿你又重新爱上轮抓了~

再次声明：第一次做 Pro 内容翻译，难免错误和理解不到位，特别欢迎指正 & 讨论。如果只是攻击，那就是您说的对，毕竟您是大师。

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